Wednesday, April 29, 2020

the hard way.

Revolutions are nasty things, explosions of human angst overcoming human fear. A lot of people die, but more importantly, as Americans we go through our education thinking the American Revolution was normal. Usually they turn out much worse. I put them on a spectrum, based on how bad the revanchist counter-revolution is, and whether it eventually shakes out to a government that actually addresses the underlying causes of the revolution.


  • Worst - Iran (1979) swapped out one murderous terror-regime for another, almost before you could blink, and that government is still in place.
  • Very Bad - France overthrew the monarchy and executed Louis XVI in 1793, promptly followed by the dictatorship of the Reign of Terror, after which Napoleon created his own monarchy. France went through a few more monarchy/republic cycles before settling down.
  • Okay - The American Revolution (1776-1789ish) had a moderate amount of bloodshed, and things were a little wobbly until the War of 1812 or so, but we didn't revert to a monarchy (notwithstanding the vast unobstructed powers of the modern Presidency).
  • Good - The Velvet/Gentle Revolution (1989) managed to democratize Czechoslovakia and eventually amicably separate Czechia and Slovakia, without violence.

COVID-19 means seismic shifts in society are inevitable; I had hoped we would do things the easy and humane way, and re-tool everything to support and help people. Instead we have what may be the worst possible leadership for this crisis. Eventually you have 50% unemployment and food being dumped and people starving while the billionaires tell everyone else to get back to work, and something's gotta give.

The problem with The Hard Way™ is that you don't know what's going to break, only that something has to. More often than not, it means a lot of people dying, without even the payback of the underlying problem being addressed.